14.2 Percent January over December

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14.2 Percent January over December

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Let’s discuss traffic today: Traditionally, it weakens around Christmas time and has for the past 3 years before it bounces back up in January.

Last night I took the first 20 days of traffic stats for December 2004, 2005 and this year. I did linear trend line & daily delta analysis to try and determine if the softness of this months traffic is a trend or just a seasonal anomaly. Amazingly, the last 3 years of Decembers have been incredibly predictable and I came away from the analysis with only one thought: We can likely expect a January traffic increase of about 14.2% over this months average levels.

Just like the stock market, our traffic levels never go straight up continually, but have very normal ups and downs depending on internal server & human issues and external environmental factors. While many of our stats are hundreds of percent up, so is the level of ‘content supply’ competition in the marketplace for the attention of our installed and future readership base… and this requires continual innovation and urgency in our actions.

Recommendation: Continue writing quality original articles and submit them this and next week so that you can participate further in the anticipated 14.2% January rise in traffic.

Posted by Christopher M. Knight on December 21, 2006 at 12:08 pm

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6 Comments »

Edward Weiss writes:

At least someone is looking into metrics. It’s good to know for SURE just what is happening.

I’d do it for my site as well but it’s just too complicated for me.

Comment provided December 21, 2006 at 12:27 pm

Angela Chen Shui writes:

“I did linear trend line & daily delta analysis”

reminds me too much of Stats classes but thanks, Chris… ;-)

Comment provided December 21, 2006 at 2:17 pm

Christopher M. Knight writes:

Angela,

What I was trying to accomplish was to *back out* the growth we’ve had this year and to only isolate/analyze the traffic rate increase or decrease as a percentage of the current average volume of traffic.

I never did like stats classes, but I do like how an understanding of basic stats can help identify actionable things that can help improve our traffic levels.

Comment provided December 21, 2006 at 2:30 pm

Edward Weiss writes:

There’s a saying about measuring things. I forget what it is right now. Something about “what can’t be measured can’t be controlled.”

My attitude about the whole metrics thing is that you need LOTS of traffic in order for meaningful analysis. But, I’m probably wrong about that too.

Comment provided December 21, 2006 at 2:46 pm

Pamela Beers writes:

MERRY CHRISTMAS, HAPPY HOLIDAYS, & SEASONS GREETINGS to all of you! This has nothing to do with stats, but is my wish for you to thoroughly enjoy this lovely time of year.

Comment provided December 22, 2006 at 7:48 am

Angela Chen Shui writes:

“I do like how an understanding of basic stats can help identify actionable things that can help improve our traffic levels.”

Point taken. I like that you’re doing all these metrics, Chris… I’ll work on drumming up some energy for stats … AGAIN…. hopefully before I reach 185 or so…. ;-)

Thanks, Pamela and the very same to you and every EzineArticles Family member!

Comment provided December 22, 2006 at 10:12 am

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